Wednesday, April 11, 2007

So I think what I'm going to do with this blog is just post interesting hands I've played and try to do a little analysis, see what went right and what went wrong.

Most of these hands will be from my office's lunch poker game. Like this one, from today!

Last hand of the day. Action folds/limps to Nick, a solid, usually tight but tricky and aggressive limit refugee, who elects to raise to 7 chips. Dave, a loose, beginner player immediately to his left calls the raise. Everyone folds to me on the button with pocket queens.

I think for a while, and put Nick on a pocket pair since he likes making bigger raises with solid pocket pairs preflop. Dave could have anything here. First of all, it's the last hand. Second of all, it's Dave. This is the dude who got into a preflop raise battle with pocket 4s preflop, and took those mothers to the felt. Anyway, if I had to guess a range here for Dave, I'd say A7+, 44+, various suited connectors and one-gappers, and a dash of Any Two Cards.

I decide a raise here is in order. This will help me figure out where I am with Nick, and get more money from Dave in the pot. I raise to 20.

Everyone folds back to Nick, who thinks for a little while, and goes all in. He's got my covered, I have a little over 80 behind. Before I have time to come up with a solid plan here, Dave calls as well, and he's got more than I do.

Action's back on me... WHAT DO YOU DO, HOT SHOT?

... RESULTS! ...

I tank for a few minutes and end up open folding my queens. Nick says "That might be the best fold you've ever made," and turns up Jacks. Ouch. Dave turns up the stone cold nuts, i.e. Ace Ten offsuit (??? wtf ???). I zoned out on the board, I think I would have made a set of queens on the river and taken down a massive pot. But still, I stand by my fold.

If Dave ended up folding to Nick's raise, I was ready to call this. I'd been reraising fairly light that session, plus our last hand usually gets a little crazy. I'd expect to be beat about as often as I'm flipping or way ahead, plus it's fun to gamble on the last hand.

But the addition of the extra caller behind Nick, for what was a fairly massive reraise, really throws a wrench in the works. I've seen Dave play Aces really passively like this as well, so that was running through my head, but honestly it could have been anyone in his seat. Two players, both interested in investing their whole stack in a hand will always give me pause, especially after a raise and a re-raise.

So I like my fold, but it still stings. Nick made a good play and it worked, but not for the reason he was expecting.

4 comments:

Andrew said...

So I don't know your work game and I'm a donk... but seriously? QQ last hand and you lay it down?

I downloaded poker stove so I'm going to have some fun with it. If my calculations are right there's 172 in the pot and 60 to you to call (you're all in so no more worry about later streets). This means you need 25.86% equity to call.

So I know you were going to call before Dave calls. So if we give Dave a REALLY tight range (JJ+, ATs+) then you're laydown is right:
Hand 0: 41.817% { JJ+ }
Hand 1: 34.758% { JJ+, ATs+ }
Hand 2: 23.425% { QQ }

But now lets add in AJo+ to Dave's hands:
Hand 0: 43.821% {JJ+}
Hand 1: 29.555% {JJ+, ATs+, AJo+}
Hand 2: 26.625% {QQ}

Good enough!

Now lets be more reasonable about Dave's hands (went to the felt preflop with 44 previous and this is the last hand):
Hand 0: 45.319% {JJ+}
Hand 1: 25.084% {88+, A9s+, KQs, ATo+}
Hand 2: 29.597% {QQ}

Okay, not that great an improvement but definitely not even borderline anymore (if you're sitting at the table with poker stove). If Nick would do this with TT or AK it gets wayyy wayyyy better:
Hand 0: 35.941% { TT+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 23.566% { 88+, A9s+, KQs, ATo+ }
Hand 2: 40.493% { QQ }

BUT if you said Nick HAS to have QQ+ then you made the right laydown by far:
Hand 0: 58.801% { QQ+ }
Hand 1: 23.365% { 88+, A9s+ }
Hand 2: 17.834% { QQ }

... and just got outplayed ;)

Unknown said...

Hey Joe, I've beaten you every time we've played poker.

Sit and twirl.

jsola said...

Hmm, I hadn't thought to run this problem through the Stove. At the time the odds were the last thing on my mind, but like you said, that was a huge ass pot.

Ah well, it's hard to keep all that math in your head in the heat of battle.

Unknown said...

I think this is an easier call when you factor in Dave calling. Dave calling makes it less likely that Nick has AA or KK. Even when Nick has AK, it's likely that Dave is way behind with 44 or killed an ace.